Macro Trading Signals

The biggest price moves in 2026 are macro-driven. CPI surprises, Fed pivots, and yield curve inversions move every asset class — ignoring them is expensive.

Key macro signals for traders

• CPI (Consumer Price Index) — above-expectation CPI = more rate hikes = bearish bonds/equities, mixed for gold
• NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) — strong jobs = Fed stays hawkish; weak jobs = pivot hopes = risk-on
• FOMC meetings — fed funds futures imply probability; surprises create 2-4% SPY moves
• Yield curve — inversion (2Y > 10Y) has preceded every US recession since 1970
• PMI — below 50 = contraction; manufacturing PMI leads equities by 3-6 months

How Tidava integrates macro

Tidava's macro overlay engine has a live economic calendar feed, fed funds futures data, and TIPS yield tracking. Before every verdict, macro context is assessed — if CPI print is due in 6 hours, the system flags heightened uncertainty and may lower conviction.